Wednesday, 14 November 2012

4 M Class flares and geomagnetic storm

Apparently the sun is throwing a party and we're all invited.  

In the last 24 hours there have been 4 M Class solar flares- ranging from M2.0 - M6.0, and another M Class flare approx 72 hours ago and we are currently experiencing a geomagnetic storm- which is beginning to subside a bit.

We currently have a 65% chance of another M class flare and 15% of an X class flare within the next 24 hours.

[SDO] AIA 171
[SDO] Colored
[Lasco] C2
[EVE] X-Ray

Geomagnetic Storm Subsiding
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is tipped sharply south. A Moderate G2 (KP=6) Geomagnetic Storm is currently in progress. Aurora is currently visible in many locations across northern USA and Canada.
UPDATE: The geomagnetic storm is slowly subsiding. The Kp index dropped below the minor geomagnetic storm threshold (KP=4).

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Nov 14 0304 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Aurora near Cornwall, Ontario (Early Wednesday) - By Robert Fry

Currently, geomagnetic storm conditions are at G1 (Minor) levelwhich can cause weak power grid fluctuations and minor impact on satellite operations. Migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels and aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes. The Bz component turned negative around 23:00 UTC on November 13, and has since had values between -10 and -20 nT. Protons have a slight chance of reaching alert threshold for the next 48 hours.

Sunspots 1613 and 1614 are closely monitored for further flare activity. Region 1613 now has two small delta configurations with strong magnetic gradients. The region is bright in H-alpha and further growth seems likely. Regions 1610 and 1611 have Beta Gamma magnetic configurations. NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate65% chance of M-class and 15% chance of X-class solar flare in the next 24 hours.
Visible sunspots on SDO’s AIA 304 image


Solar wind
speed: 413.4 km/sec
density: 4.3 protons/cm3
The Radio Sun10.7 cm flux: 144 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal8.9 nT
Bz6.4 nT south
Featured image:  Aurora display seen on November 13, 2012 over Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada (Credit: Ray Mckenzie via SpaceWeather Aurora Gallery)

1 comment:

  1. Gnarliest sky goop ever in SoCal today and HAARP website is up to no good:


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