Solar Update: ... a little Deja Vu?

The past 48 hours have definitely had a ring of Deja Vu going on in the realms of  our finicky Sun.


After weeks of silence, old spots 1944 & 1946- now renumbered 1967 & 1968- have almost rotated into direct Earth facing view and once again, we're in the middle of yet another epic light show!


 In the past 72 hours approximately, we've had 12 M Class flares according to Solarham, and yet Watchers is telling us that there have been 17 M Class flares ALL from spot 1967, between 1am Feb first and 9am Feb second, plus an assortment of C Class flares from both 1967 & 1968.  1967 is currently Beta Gamma Delta, and 1968 is Beta Gamma.



Watchers notes 3 CMEs that have also been observed:

Three Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09:48 UTC off the north, east, and southwest limbs. The CME to the southwest appears to correlate with a backsided filament eruption seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery beginning at 08:25 UTC today.

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2014/02/02/series-of-moderate-eruptions-and-cmes-region-1967-approaching-center-of-the-disk/

EName	Start	Stop	Peak	GOES Class	Derived Position
gev_20140127_0105	2014/01/27 01:05:00	01:39:00	01:22:00	M1.0	S16E88 ( 1967 )
gev_20140127_0202	2014/01/27 02:02:00	02:18:00	02:11:00	M1.1	S13E88 ( 1967 )
gev_20140127_2205	2014/01/27 22:05:00	22:15:00	22:10:00	M4.9	S14E88 ( 1967 )
gev_20140128_0402	2014/01/28 04:02:00	04:13:00	04:09:00	M1.5	S14E88 ( 1967 )
gev_20140128_0725	2014/01/28 07:25:00	07:34:00	07:31:00	M3.6	S10E75 ( 1967 )
gev_20140128_1134	2014/01/28 11:34:00	11:41:00	11:38:00	M1.4	S10E72 ( 1967 )
gev_20140128_1233	2014/01/28 12:33:00	12:50:00	12:46:00	M1.3	S15E79 ( 1967 )
gev_20140128_1524	2014/01/28 15:24:00	15:30:00	15:26:00	M3.5	S13E88 ( 1967 )
gev_20140128_1900	2014/01/28 19:00:00	19:46:00	19:40:00	M4.9	S14E75 ( 1967 )
gev_20140128_2204	2014/01/28 22:04:00	22:20:00	22:16:00	M2.6	S14E74 ( 1967 )
gev_20140130_0633	2014/01/30 06:33:00	06:44:00	06:39:00	M2.1	S14E54 ( 1967 )
gev_20140130_0754	2014/01/30 07:54:00	08:41:00	08:11:00	M1.1	S11E54 ( 1967 )
gev_20140130_1548	2014/01/30 15:48:00	16:28:00	16:11:00	M6.6	S11E64 ( 1967 )
gev_20140201_0119	2014/02/01 01:19:00	01:38:00	01:25:00	M1.0	S10E26 ( 1967 )
gev_20140201_0714	2014/02/01 07:14:00	07:45:00	07:23:00	M3.0	S10E22 ( 1967 )
gev_20140202_0717	2014/02/02 07:17:00	08:29:00	08:20:00	M2.2	S11E13 ( 1967 )
gev_20140202_0924	2014/02/02 09:24:00	09:36:00	09:31:00	M4.4	S10E14 ( 1967 )

 NOAA has upgraded the risks to 80% for M Class (snort!) and 50% for an X Class flare.


Now here is where the "Deja Vu" enters the picture.  If you will remember to the last time old spot 1944 & 46 were almost directly earth facing, they were putting on a grand light show:

On Wed I published a Solar Update HERE, mostly focused on the X class flare from spot 1944 and the predicted upcoming geomagnetic storm caused by the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) generated by the X Flare.

"NOAA is giving a risk 80% of M Class and 50% of X Class flares for today.... I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I give it 100% chance of an MClass flare today from 1944/6, and I expect we'll see 1946 evolve into Beta Gamma Delta in the next 24-48 hours as well.  We also have a good size Coronal Hole currently rotating into direct Earth View- the Solar Wind stream from that should reach earth Jan 12/13th."

....As I said in an earlier post a little while back about solar activity- for two years I have watched the same thing happen over and over again:  a major sun spot, throwing off huge flares, rotates into geoeffective Earth view and suddenly.... it just fizzles out.  Goes silent.  Then as it rotates around the western limb, then POW  it flares up again.  

Same thing again this week.  Spot 1944 should of continued with strong M and even X Class flares.  It was so close to 1943 that they were almost touching.....  The fact that NOAA gave a risk of  90% for M Class and 50% for X Class flares, shows that that IS what should of happened.  And it didn't.  Instead, everything just went silent.

That is a quote from my Jan 11th 2014 article HERE

Sound familiar?  AGAIN?!?   AGAIN?!  I'm thinking that we are stuck in some sort of strange solar Ground Hog day loop, where the same solar events just keep repeating in the same pattern, as if stuck in a time vortex....

Well, yesterday was ground hog day again my friends....  the question is:  Will Sol repeat the same performance again this time around?   If it does I might just join Sol in a good ol' fashion tantrum instead of just questioning.


Oh and did I mention?  Just like last time round, we've also got a nice good sized coronal hole rotating into view as well.






I don't know about you guys, but I'm beginning to feel a lot like Bill Murray.....

Sol Tantrums and I question

After almost 3 weeks of eiree silence, Sol is blasting off again.

.... and I'm frustrated as all hell.



As I said earlier this month, something is going on here.

I said in an earlier post a little while back about solar activity- for two years I have watched the same thing happen over and over again:  a major sun spot, throwing off huge flares, rotates into geoeffective Earth view and suddenly.... it just fizzles out.  Goes silent.  Then as it rotates around the western limb, then POW  it flares up again.  

Same thing again this week.  Spot 1944 should of continued with strong M and even X Class flares.  It was so close to 1943 that they were almost touching.....  The fact that NOAA gave a risk of  90% for M Class and 50% for X Class flares, shows that that IS what should of happened.  And it didn't.  Instead, everything just went silent.  Not even a mention of the massive Coronal Hole stream that was directly facing earth since Wednesday either. Below is a picture of the Coronal Hole on Tuesday.

So.... I'm at a loss here.  Either NASA/NOAA etc are all lying, or something completely unheard of (or at least, completely unexplained) is happening between Earth and the Sun.

Sunspot 1944 went dead silent- barely so much as a flicker- and for the past 2 and a half weeks the sun has been almost completely silent. Even scientists are scratching their heads and wondering what the hell is going on:

THE Sun’s activity has plummeted to a century low, baffling scientists and possibly heralding a new mini-Ice Age.

"I've been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I've never seen anything quite like this," Richard Harrison, head of space physics at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, told the BBC.
"If you want to go back to see when the Sun was this inactive... you've got to go back about 100 years," he said.
The lull is particularly surprising because the Sun has reached its solar maximum, the point in its 11-year cycle where activity is at its peak.

Now.... I don't completely believe this report as I find it unimaginable that 100 years ago we had very accurate information on studying the sun and it's solar activity.... but then again, all we have now is NASA and NOAA and their ilk and we already know that they are lying to us, sooooo.....


I don't believe in this whole "New Ice Age" theory- I personally think it's all a bunch of fear porn (hence the creation of movies like "The day after tomorrow" etc), but I do believe that the bizarre weather patterns (coldest weather in NE North America in the last 100 years) and the wild storms are directly linked to the even more bizarre solar activity.... and I'm not entirely certain that THAT is caused by natural, non-artificial/manipulated forces.


As of three days ago, old sun spot 1944 and 46 are rotating back into view from the eastern limb.  They have been renumbered 1967 and 1968.  Spot 1944/67 started blasting off C Class flares and two days ago began to dance in earnest with a barrage of M Class - 9 of them in the last 48 hours plus a pile of C Class flares.  Spot 1944/67 has degraded somewhat from it's previous size and complexity during it's last earth facing tour, but it's still a huge Beta Gamma spot, and 1946/68 is also  blasting off C Class flares and still in close proximity to 44/67- although it has degraded to a simple beta rating. As of yet, no CMEs have appeared, but we'll wait to see what we get later today in the way of updates.


Technically we should see some spectacular fireworks from Sol over the next 10 days or so.... the question is:  Will we?


This is a picture of the M4.9 flare yesterday- the largest of the last pack of flares, and a shot of 1944/67 as it begins to rotate into Earth Facing view (both photos from SolarHam)






Here is a list of the Solar Flares from the last 48 hours from TESIS:

January 29, 2014

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 28.01.2014 to 29.01.2014 (GOES-15)

Solar flares today

Today, 5 solar flares were observed:

		Active region	Begin, UT	Max, UT	End, UT
	Flare of class C4.1	0	00:42:00	00:49:00	00:54:00
	Flare of class C4.2	1968	02:56:00	03:13:00	03:22:00
	Flare of class C4.2	0	03:31:00	03:36:00	03:40:00
	Flare of class C7.3	1967	04:06:00	04:31:00	04:42:00
	Flare of class C3.5	1967	06:53:00	07:19:00	07:34:00

Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 12 solar flares were observed:

		Active region	Begin, UT	Max, UT	End, UT
	Flare of class C7.6	1967	00:31:00	00:36:00	00:39:00
	Flare of class C3.3	1967	03:08:00	03:12:00	03:16:00
	Flare of class M1.5	1967	04:02:00	04:09:00	04:13:00
	Flare of class C9.2	1967	05:25:00	05:29:00	05:31:00
	Flare of class C2.5	1967	06:48:00	06:52:00	06:55:00
	Flare of class M3.6	1967	07:25:00	07:31:00	07:34:00
	Flare of class M1.4	1967	11:34:00	11:38:00	11:41:00
	Flare of class C8.3	1967	12:18:00	12:25:00	12:30:00
	Flare of class M1.3	1967	12:33:00	12:46:00	12:50:00
	Flare of class C8.5	1968	16:23:00	16:45:00	16:57:00
	Flare of class M4.9	1967	19:00:00	19:40:00	19:46:00
	Flare of class M2.6	1967	22:04:00	22:16:00	22:20:00

	Flare of class M1.0	1967	01:05:00	01:22:00	01:39:00
	Flare of class M1.1	1967	02:02:00	02:11:00	02:18:00
	Flare of class C3.3	1967	04:09:00	04:17:00	04:21:00
	Flare of class C2.3	1960	05:19:00	05:22:00	05:25:00
	Flare of class C2.0	0	06:51:00	06:54:00	06:58:00
	Flare of class C6.0	1968	08:07:00	08:23:00	08:40:00
	Flare of class C2.6	1968	11:08:00	11:13:00	11:19:00
	Flare of class C8.0	1967	19:06:00	19:27:00	19:36:00
	Flare of class C5.3	1967	20:15:00	20:55:00	21:06:00
	Flare of class M4.9	1967	22:05:00	22:10:00	22:15:00