Thursday 24 October 2013

Sol takes it's dance to the next level of Exuberance

So, while trying to not sprain my shoulder by patting my self on the back too enthusiastically.... I was right, again, lol.

In the last 24 hours we've had 4, count them FOUR, M Class solar flares, AND..... 1877 decided to get all complex and broody and blew an M 9.3 flare just after midnight UTC last night.  Yesterday I said to watch out for 1877 because I had a feeling she was going to show us some serious dance moves and I was correct.  From the time I wrote the article yesterday to midnight 1877 developed into a complex Beta Delta Gamma configuration...... M9.3 is just a hair off of X Class, so hold onto your hats!  I cannot find a video of the M9.3 anywhere yet.... which is strange.

Active Region 1877 produced strong M 9.3 at 00:30 UTC on October 24, 2013. This region decreased in area, but developed a beta-gama-delta configuration in its intermediate spots. It was responsible for few low-level C-class during the past few days. Extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's upper atmosphere and created a brief HF radio blackout on the sunlit side of the planet. It looks like this event produced Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) which is heading towards our planet.

Both 1875 and 1877 are almost perfectly earth facing at this moment and definitely geoeffective.

The Geomagnetic storm has started-  from the 3 (yesterday I said there were 2, I missed one, opps!) incoming CMEs that have begun to arrive.  The M 9.3 Flare last night also set off a CME and I will update on that predicted arrival time when I get it.  At this moment the NASA web site still hasn't updated their CME list (gee thanx guys, glad to see you're sooooo on the ball with this stuff), and NOAA hasn't increased their Flare Risk update....... 4 M Class flares yesterday, 1877 develops into BDG and they don't increase their Flare Risk update?!?   Seriously?


I strongly suspect that the flare activity will keep dancing today and tomorrow- and I'm definitely expecting another high M Class or X Class flare......

....2 hours later.....

I got side tracked by family stuff and instead of pushing to get this article out, I decided to wait a bit..... I came back to the computer to find that we have had another M 3.5 and M2.5- both from 1875- since I stepped away from the computer 2 hours ago.

.....and NOAA STILL hasn't updated their Flare Risk!!!   Seriously guys?!  We know that you're under reporting everything to do with our planet and sun and solar system..... but when the rank amateurs (and I am at best, the lowest of rank amateurs!) can more accurately predict solar flares and CMEs...... you KNOW they are hiding something!

I still strongly suggest that 1875 isn't done yet, and that we haven't seen the biggest flare from 1877. I wouldn't be surprised to see the biggest X Class flare of this cycle come out of this weeks dance competition.  So far the record for this solar cycle is an X 6.9 on August 09 2011.

last 24 hours


Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 40%
X-Class: 05%

Active Watches
Geomag. Storm     YES
Radiation Storm     NO

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