Well the Ukraine Drama has really gone through the roof this past week.
To recap:
Thursday Putin sends message to Poroshenko for a cease fire and the removal of heavy artillery
Sunday Ukraine bombs Donetsk with heavy artillery
Monday Poroshenko legislates the addition of 50,000 more military draftees, bringing the total to 250,000 men conscripted
Tuesday Ukraine states Russians on the border- Russia reply's: "Rubbish"
Wednesday Poroshenko Speaks at Davos and says:
.....Russia has invaded Ukraine
.....We need more money....
Wednesday NATO demands that Russian troops leave Ukraine
Thursday Ukraine blows up trolly and trolly stop killing 13 people
Thursday Ukraine army retreats from Donetsk airport
Thursday US sends trainers and armored vehicles to Ukraine
Thursday NATO states increased Russian involvement in Ukraine
I am posting three articles that I read today, below, that bring a little bit more clarity and insight into what's going on, and some back ground information.
First up, while I've never been a "Salon" fan, this article contains enough truth to get people thinking (at the very least, one would hope).
Salon Original article HERE
http://www.osce.org/om/135686
excerpt:
Military movement
At the two BCPs the OM did not observe military movement, apart from vehicles of the Russian Federation border guard service.
http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/22/2636
http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/22/2612
As
the article below from the Financial Times shows, in the face of
pending default the West has finally given up on the financial plan for
Ukraine it drew up last year.
Briefly, a few weeks ago the Ukrainian government and the IMF admitted that Ukraine needed another $15 billion to get through the next few months.
Attempts to find this money with the western governments have proven unsuccessful.
The US was only prepared to provide a further $1 billion in loan guarantees in addition to the $1 billion in loan guarantees it provided Ukraine last year.
The European Commission has proposed the EU give Ukraine a further 1.8 billion euros.This has not yet been approved by the European Council (the EU’s highest body) where the proposal is likely to meet resistance.
In proposing it the European Commission has said it is as far as the EU can go. A larger amount would drain the EU’s reserves to dangerous levels leaving them short in the event of a crisis.
Lastly, Germany is providing Ukraine with 500 million euros, but this a ring fenced loan for rehabilitation of the eastern Ukrainian regions devastated by the war and cannot be used for the benefit of the Ukrainian economy as a whole.
These sums come nowhere close to the $15 billion the IMF says Ukraine needs.
With default looming the US financier George Soros flew to Kiev and has come up with a plan. This calls for the IMF to drop its existing plan and come up with a new more generous one. At the same time Ukraine’s private western creditors are supposed to voluntarily agree to a cut back or a “haircut” on their loans.
Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, says she in principle supports this plan. The details will be worked out over the course of further negotiations that will drag on through January and February.
The first point to make about this plan is that it is an admission that the IMF plan decided on last spring has failed. Many commentators such as Eric Kraus and Elliott Auckland, who both write for RI, always predicted that it would. That is now official.
The second point is that this plan looks like a complicated way to avoid talking to Ukraine’s biggest creditor, which is Russia.
Attempts by the US and the UK governments to find a way for Ukraine to default “legally” on its Russian loans have failed following legal advice that it can’t be done.
Since neither the Ukrainians nor the Western powers want to talk to the Russians about a formal debt restructuring of Ukraine’s debts, they seem to be trying to get around this by adopting Soros’s plan of increasing the amount of IMF lending to Ukraine whilst getting Ukraine’s private western creditors to take a bigger hit than they would otherwise have done.
The third point about this plan is that if the Russians are not party to it then the amount Ukraine owes the Russians is unchanged and the Ukrainians must pay the Russians the same amount they pay now, as the loans say.
It will be interesting to see whether Ukraine’s private creditors agree to the sort of voluntary haircut they are being asked to make. Many of them may not be happy to agree to a haircut so that Ukraine and its Western supporters don’t have to talk to the Russians.
They may very well balk at a plan whose effect would be to privilege loans Ukraine owes Russia over loans Ukraine owes them. No doubt there will be a lot of arms twisting to get them to agree but it is likely the negotiations will be tough.
More to the point is how the Russians will react to all this. Over the last few weeks they have pointedly reminded everyone that the $3 billion loan they extended to Ukraine at the beginning of last year is now due and that Naftogaz, Ukrainian national gas company, owes them $2.4 billion.
They have also said that on 1st April 2015 the discount on the price of gas Ukraine currently gets from Russia will end. Following a cabinet meeting on 21st January 2014 Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev pointedly said Russia is not prepared to go on supporting Ukraine’s economy indefinitely.
In a sense the Russians stand to come out of this well whatever happens. Since they are not being asked to agree to a haircut, as Ukraine’s biggest creditor if the IMF steps up financial support to Ukraine a lot (perhaps most) of the money will end up in Russia.
There has to be a question however about how realistic this plan is.
Russia is Ukraine’s biggest creditor and key trading partner. It is Russia that currently supplies Ukraine with the gas, electricity and coal Ukraine needs to survive. The previous IMF plan failed precisely because it did not involve Russia.
Refusing to talk to Russia makes no economic sense. As the situation in Ukraine worsens over the coming weeks it may prove impossible to avoid talking to Russia to get Russia's agreement to a debt restructuring if there is to be a realistic chance of Ukraine avoiding default. That is the reality, however disagreeable to some in Ukraine and the West it may be.
To recap:
Thursday Putin sends message to Poroshenko for a cease fire and the removal of heavy artillery
Sunday Ukraine bombs Donetsk with heavy artillery
Monday Poroshenko legislates the addition of 50,000 more military draftees, bringing the total to 250,000 men conscripted
Tuesday Ukraine states Russians on the border- Russia reply's: "Rubbish"
Wednesday Poroshenko Speaks at Davos and says:
.....Russia has invaded Ukraine
.....We need more money....
Wednesday NATO demands that Russian troops leave Ukraine
Thursday Ukraine blows up trolly and trolly stop killing 13 people
Thursday Ukraine army retreats from Donetsk airport
Thursday US sends trainers and armored vehicles to Ukraine
Thursday NATO states increased Russian involvement in Ukraine
I am posting three articles that I read today, below, that bring a little bit more clarity and insight into what's going on, and some back ground information.
Salon Original article HERE
Wednesday, Jan 21, 2015 12:00 AM MST
Distortions, lies and omissions: The New York Times won’t tell you the real story behind Ukraine, Russian economic collapse
International papers will cover America's role in the world honestly. Only our best paper willingly blinds itself
A
note arrived a few days ago from one of my best informants in Europe. He
had just met across a hotel dining table with a senior German
executive, and the topic quickly turned to the crisis in Ukraine and the
sanctions regime Washington has imposed on Russia.
I can do no better than give you the pertinent passage in the note:
President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry wanted Middle East peace to stand as their legacy on the foreign side. Now they propose restored relations with Cuba as the bronze monument. Forget about it. The devastation of ties with a global power, the dissolution of Ukraine and very possibly the ruination of Europe’s barely beating economic recovery will be what we live with after this administration makes its exit.
I am awestruck as news of recent events unfolds. Ukraine is more than an economic, political and military mess: It is a major humanitarian tragedy now. As the German CEO wants to know, how can we possibly arm neo-Nazis in Ukraine while right-wing extremists and anti-immigration atavists rise all over Europe?
The body blows the State Department and Treasury are dealing Russia in response to the Ukraine crisis—as precipitated by State, of course—would be irresponsible under any circumstances for the risks they carry. In the current global environment, this starts to shape up as monomania.
I can do no better than give you the pertinent passage in the note:
“… I spoke … breakfast time in Europe… with the head of one of the largest companies in Germany. This declaration was one of the first items he mentioned. I took notes—because it is one of my clients—and here is what he said: ‘It is urgent for Europe to bring Obama and the people making the decisions behind him back to reality. If not, this will spiral first into a financial collapse, which will slam into all of Europe, and then who knows where it goes after that? Everywhere, far-right nationalist forces are building. Look at the last U.S. Congressional elections, and think what is coming. Will America ever have had a more nationalist Congress? Le Pen would be right at home in this crowd. The course we are on now is folly. Can’t they see that?’”I wish I could say the German exec’s question is a good one, but the grim answer is too obvious. They can see nothing in Washington. We witness the single most reckless, destructive foreign policy this administration has yet devised, comparable in magnitude to Bush II’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003.
President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry wanted Middle East peace to stand as their legacy on the foreign side. Now they propose restored relations with Cuba as the bronze monument. Forget about it. The devastation of ties with a global power, the dissolution of Ukraine and very possibly the ruination of Europe’s barely beating economic recovery will be what we live with after this administration makes its exit.
I am awestruck as news of recent events unfolds. Ukraine is more than an economic, political and military mess: It is a major humanitarian tragedy now. As the German CEO wants to know, how can we possibly arm neo-Nazis in Ukraine while right-wing extremists and anti-immigration atavists rise all over Europe?
The body blows the State Department and Treasury are dealing Russia in response to the Ukraine crisis—as precipitated by State, of course—would be irresponsible under any circumstances for the risks they carry. In the current global environment, this starts to shape up as monomania.
advertisement
http://www.osce.org/om/135686
Weekly update from the OSCE Observer Mission at Russian Checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk based on information as of 10:00 (Moscow time), 21 January 2015
excerpt:
Military movement
At the two BCPs the OM did not observe military movement, apart from vehicles of the Russian Federation border guard service.
http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/22/2636
Ex-Czech President Václav Klaus: Crimea Has Always Belonged to Russia
- "the solution can only be found in negotiations, a compromise. Too bad that the political leadership in Ukraine is not able to do that."
- "For me, the conflict is 'Europe and America against Russia,' Ukraine is only a passive instrument in this dispute."
- "But to put the country before the choice of either East or West is to destroy it."
- "It is quite clear that the Crimea was not part of Ukraine, you know it. The Crimea has always belonged to Russia."
- "Without Maidan there would have been no annexation of the Crimea."
http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/22/2612
Ukraine - IMF Admits Failure, Scraps Plan A, Goes for Plan B
IMF now admits original aid plan has
failed. Has been forced to get behind the more generous Soros Plan.
Question is can it work without Russia
Soros meets the Ukrainians
Briefly, a few weeks ago the Ukrainian government and the IMF admitted that Ukraine needed another $15 billion to get through the next few months.
Attempts to find this money with the western governments have proven unsuccessful.
The US was only prepared to provide a further $1 billion in loan guarantees in addition to the $1 billion in loan guarantees it provided Ukraine last year.
The European Commission has proposed the EU give Ukraine a further 1.8 billion euros.This has not yet been approved by the European Council (the EU’s highest body) where the proposal is likely to meet resistance.
In proposing it the European Commission has said it is as far as the EU can go. A larger amount would drain the EU’s reserves to dangerous levels leaving them short in the event of a crisis.
Lastly, Germany is providing Ukraine with 500 million euros, but this a ring fenced loan for rehabilitation of the eastern Ukrainian regions devastated by the war and cannot be used for the benefit of the Ukrainian economy as a whole.
These sums come nowhere close to the $15 billion the IMF says Ukraine needs.
With default looming the US financier George Soros flew to Kiev and has come up with a plan. This calls for the IMF to drop its existing plan and come up with a new more generous one. At the same time Ukraine’s private western creditors are supposed to voluntarily agree to a cut back or a “haircut” on their loans.
Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, says she in principle supports this plan. The details will be worked out over the course of further negotiations that will drag on through January and February.
The first point to make about this plan is that it is an admission that the IMF plan decided on last spring has failed. Many commentators such as Eric Kraus and Elliott Auckland, who both write for RI, always predicted that it would. That is now official.
The second point is that this plan looks like a complicated way to avoid talking to Ukraine’s biggest creditor, which is Russia.
Attempts by the US and the UK governments to find a way for Ukraine to default “legally” on its Russian loans have failed following legal advice that it can’t be done.
Since neither the Ukrainians nor the Western powers want to talk to the Russians about a formal debt restructuring of Ukraine’s debts, they seem to be trying to get around this by adopting Soros’s plan of increasing the amount of IMF lending to Ukraine whilst getting Ukraine’s private western creditors to take a bigger hit than they would otherwise have done.
The third point about this plan is that if the Russians are not party to it then the amount Ukraine owes the Russians is unchanged and the Ukrainians must pay the Russians the same amount they pay now, as the loans say.
It will be interesting to see whether Ukraine’s private creditors agree to the sort of voluntary haircut they are being asked to make. Many of them may not be happy to agree to a haircut so that Ukraine and its Western supporters don’t have to talk to the Russians.
They may very well balk at a plan whose effect would be to privilege loans Ukraine owes Russia over loans Ukraine owes them. No doubt there will be a lot of arms twisting to get them to agree but it is likely the negotiations will be tough.
More to the point is how the Russians will react to all this. Over the last few weeks they have pointedly reminded everyone that the $3 billion loan they extended to Ukraine at the beginning of last year is now due and that Naftogaz, Ukrainian national gas company, owes them $2.4 billion.
They have also said that on 1st April 2015 the discount on the price of gas Ukraine currently gets from Russia will end. Following a cabinet meeting on 21st January 2014 Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev pointedly said Russia is not prepared to go on supporting Ukraine’s economy indefinitely.
In a sense the Russians stand to come out of this well whatever happens. Since they are not being asked to agree to a haircut, as Ukraine’s biggest creditor if the IMF steps up financial support to Ukraine a lot (perhaps most) of the money will end up in Russia.
There has to be a question however about how realistic this plan is.
Russia is Ukraine’s biggest creditor and key trading partner. It is Russia that currently supplies Ukraine with the gas, electricity and coal Ukraine needs to survive. The previous IMF plan failed precisely because it did not involve Russia.
Refusing to talk to Russia makes no economic sense. As the situation in Ukraine worsens over the coming weeks it may prove impossible to avoid talking to Russia to get Russia's agreement to a debt restructuring if there is to be a realistic chance of Ukraine avoiding default. That is the reality, however disagreeable to some in Ukraine and the West it may be.
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