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Monday, 13 May 2013

Sol Goes on a 72 hour Bender

Well guys, I wasn't going to be posting this morning, but upon seeing that we had an XClass Solar Flare last night, preceded by 4 MClass flares in the last 72 hours..... I dropped everything to write this up.

Beyond the 4 MClass and 1 XClass flares in the past 72 hours, we've also had two filaments rip off, both releasing CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections).  The last CME should give Earth a glancing blow on the 15th of this month.

The XClass flare last night- X 1.7 was a huge visual display (that someone captured on their personal telescope- image below), created a very big R3 radio black out on the sunlit side of earth when it happened.  The CME from this flare will NOT be Earth facing, not even a glancing blow.

We currently have 8 active regions that are Earth facing and two more regions that are now rotating into view- one of those regions is where the XClass flare came from last night.

UPDATE!!!!  We just had another MClass flare a few moments ago!! An M 1.3 flare- I do not have details yet and will post them when I get them.

Below are some of the images and info from www.solarham.com

Events
(>24h)
M1.3
X1.7
M1.2
M1.9
(>72h)
M1.3
M3.9

The Sun Today : Updated May 13, 2013 

[Active Regions]

Magnetogram

Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 50%
X-Class: 05%
Active Watches
Geomag. Storm     NO
Radiation Storm     NO




X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC [VIDEO]. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and will begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.
CME Update: A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced, but as expected it was directed away from Earth. [VIDEO]
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0210 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2347 km/s
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Alex Dzierba, Jr. located in Hawaii fought through the cloud cover and managed to capture the X-Class flare through his personal solar telescope. Great job and thanks for sharing!
Updated 05/13/2013 @ 11:50 UTC
Solar Update
Below is an updated image of the visible solar disk on Monday morning. Solar activity is now at strong levels thanks to one X-Class Flare and multiple M-Class events around a new sunspot rotating into view off the east limb. The X1.7 Solar Flare at 02:15 UTC was responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout, a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 320sfu and Type II Radio Emission (Sweep Frequency Event) with an estimated velocity of 2347 km/s. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced, but directed away from Earth. We will get a better view at the active region as the day progresses. GOES Solar X-Rays continue to detect several C-Class flares, each of which are centered around the new region. There will remain a chance for at least M-Class flares today. Other regions to keep an eye today will be Sunspots 1745 and 1746. Each have a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and could produce a moderate solar flare as well. With the rash of Earth facing Sunspots, the 10.7cm Solar Flux is expected to increase.




From the Watchers site: http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2013/05/12/two-m-class-flares-and-filament-eruption/

A new active region behind east limb produced powerful X1.7 solar flare on May 13, 2013 at 02:15 UTC. This event was associated with  strong R3 Radio Blackout AlertType II Radio Emission and 10 cm Radio Burst. 
This was the strongest solar flare of the year so far.
Strong R3 radio Blackout alert signals possible wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth and degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for about an hour.
Type II Radio Emission occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0210 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2347 km/s
NASA's STERO twin probes recorded eruption of X1.7 solar flare on May 13, 2013 (Credit: NASA/STEREO)
10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 147 sfu
This new region is currently very active and it should begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Considering its location any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth.
This new active region already produced two moderate M-class solar flare, registered as M1.9 at 20:31 UTC and M1.2 at22.:44 UTC
There are currently 10 numbered regions on the disk. Regions 1745 and 1746 have Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and are capable of producing more strong flares, and six more active regions developed Beta magnetic field and are coming into center of the disk in the coming days.






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Coming Soon - MAY 18, 2013

Radio Anomaly: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproo...
US TEC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ustec/images...

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