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Showing posts with label Solar updates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Solar updates. Show all posts

Thursday, 8 October 2015

Oct 8 2015: Solar and CERN update

Good mornin' Darlins!!!

Solar Update- we still as being told there is zero flare activity right now- not even a C class flare in the past 4 days. But the Geomagnetic storm has increased, kp7 and is now a G3 "Strong" Geomagnetic Storm as of last night. there was also a filament that ripped off- SO said that it's not going to be geoeffective, but I disagree.  We still have two major coronal holes directly facing earth and the solar wind speeds are still high..... I strongly suspect that you may want to keep something for headaches on hand today, be careful driving, and expect some fuckupery from your wireless gadgets, lol.

I'm glad that the SDO pics seems to be back up... not that I entirely trust them,lol....

As for CERN.... well it looks like they lost beam 1 last night just before 20:00 then their injected again around 0400 this morning and dumped again within a few minutes.... the grphs are showing a couple of energy spikes that I associate with them about to inject beams.... but no injection. Interesting..... and on the Dash they are showing a weird spike in beam 2... but there is no indication that there were any beams running at the time. hmmmmmm.....




Solar/Cern Update Notes from yesterday:


So darlin's- we are under a pretty good sized geomagnetic storm right now- have been since last night- KP6. absolutely NO solar flare activity at all!!! I mean NONE- we had an M1.2 on the 4th... and literally everything stopped- not even a C class flare since then. We also have MASSIVE coronal holes- approx 50% of the upper quadrant is a giant coronal hole, and there is quite a pick up in the solar wind speeds since last night. Interestingly enough, EVERY SDO filter shot of the sun right now is FUCKED- either missing entirely, or just a mess.... Very Interesting......

CERN has been running on high- the last run just dumped a little more than an hour ago- they ran on high power- 6.5 TeV for just slightly short of 24 hours- at over 1600 bunches.












Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Sol Grooves to it's own Beat

Well my friends, our beautiful star Sol is once again dancing and grooving to the beat of it's own drum.  Over the course of the past two months, the sun has sorta picked up the pace from what has been a very very quiet solar maxim.  This past two weeks has been an exciting one for sure, with multiple solar events, a rather large CME from a filament ripping off the surface, another large full halo CME last week just as sun spot 2192 began it's rotation from the farside to earth facing positioning.

In the past 3 days we have seen one X Class flare on the 19th, followed by 8 M Class flares over the past 48 hours.  The most powerful one happened last night just before 2am UTC.  All the major and minor flares (multiple C Class flares over the past 3 days as well) have  been brought to us through sun spot 2192, which has developed into a massive spot and is still gathering size, with a complex Beta Gamma Delta configuration.

One of the things that I'm finding intriguing this morning is that the M8.7 flare last night was originally listed as M9 (see the Space weather note below).... and it had all the markings of blasting off a CME- which would be directly Earth facing, yet so far there has been no updates to show a CME.  Interestingly enough, over the past month of flares, there has only been one CME listed in the updates from an M7 flare Oct 2nd, and one CME last week from the far side flare of 2192 on the 14th.

As 2192 is now directly in geomagnetic alignment with Earth, I will be watching with keen interest to see if, like so many other monster sun spots have done over the past two years, it will suddenly go quiet now that it's directly Earth facing.   I will also note that we have a good size Coronal Hole directly Earth facing on the leading edge of spot 2192, and a new sunspot is about to rotate into view from the eastern limb- old spots 2181 & 2182 are making another appearance (and will be given a new numerical designation once they are Earth facing)- 2182 let off 3 M Class flares on Oct 9th on it's last jaunt around, and from the look of the few farside pics, 2181 seems to of grown in size..... could be interesting!







Coronal holes on October 22nd 2014

In other solar based news, we will see- or at least, everyone in North America will see- a partial solar eclipse today, starting around 2pm PDT. 

More solar information:

http://www.solarham.net/

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2014/10/22/strong-m8-7-solar-flare-erupted-from-region-2192/

http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/active_areas.html?m=10&d=22&y=2014

Oct 19th


Flare of class X1.1 2192 04:17:00 05:03:00 05:48:00

Oct 20th

Flare of class C2.5 2192 00:49:00 00:53:00 00:56:00

Flare of class C2.8 2192 01:58:00 02:01:00 02:04:00

Flare of class C3.2 2192 02:25:00 02:28:00 02:32:00

Flare of class C5.4 2192 03:32:00 03:57:00 04:05:00

Flare of class C9.0 2192 05:37:00 06:02:00 06:09:00

Flare of class M3.9 2192 09:00:00 09:11:00 09:20:00

Flare of class C2.8 2192 11:19:00 11:27:00 11:30:00

Flare of class C2.7 2192 13:58:00 14:08:00 14:11:00

Flare of class C3.1 2192 14:40:00 14:43:00 14:47:00

Flare of class C8.6 2192 14:58:00 15:24:00 15:41:00

Flare of class M4.5 2192 16:00:00 16:37:00 16:55:00

Flare of class C6.2 2192 18:43:00 18:47:00 18:51:00

Flare of class M1.4 2192 18:55:00 19:02:00 19:04:00

Flare of class M1.7 2192 19:53:00 20:04:00 20:13:00

Flare of class M1.2 2192 22:43:00 22:55:00 23:13:00


Oct 21st

Flare of class C4.2 0 02:12:00 02:20:00 02:30:00

Flare of class C5.7 2192 06:05:00 06:14:00 06:21:00

Flare of class C2.9 2192 06:53:00 06:57:00 07:02:00

Flare of class C3.1 2192 08:08:00 08:10:00 08:12:00

Flare of class C6.3 0 10:46:00 10:58:00 11:13:00

Flare of class C4.4 0 12:25:00 12:28:00 12:30:00

Flare of class M1.2 0 13:35:00 13:38:00 13:40:00

Flare of class C4.0 2192 19:03:00 19:10:00 19:16:00

Flare of class C6.5 2192 20:11:00 20:20:00 20:25:00

Flare of class C3.4 2192 21:54:00 22:04:00 22:14:00


Oct 22nd

Flare of class M8.7 2192 01:16:00 01:59:00 02:28:00

Flare of class M2.7 2192 05:11:00 05:17:00 05:21:00








http://spaceweather.com/

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014
What's up in space
On October 23rd there will be a partial eclipse of the Sun. Got clouds? No problem. The event will be broadcast live on the web by the Coca-Cola Science Center.
Solar Eclipse Live
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE: On Thursday, Oct. 23rd, the Moon will pass in front of the sun, off center, producing a partial solar eclipse visible from almost all of North America. The action begins at approximatey 2 pm PDT. Get the full story from Science@NASA.
LOTS OF SOLAR FLARES: During the past 48 hours, monster sunspot AR2192 has unleashed seven M-class solar flares. The most powerful of the bunch (Oct 22nd at 0159 UT) was an M9-class eruption that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, causing a brief blackout of HF radio communications on the dayside of Earth (e.g., parts of Asia and Australia). In addition, the explosion might have hurled a CME into space. Confirmation awaits the arrival of coronagraph data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Stay tuned for updates.
More flares are in the offing. AR2192 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate at 65% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Oct. 22nd. Solar flare alerts: text, voice



 

Thursday, 11 September 2014

Solar Update: Sol has Heart!!!


It's been a long time since I have given a solar update, but the video images from last night just begged to be posted.

In the past 48 hours we have had two major solar flares- an M4.5 and an X1.6-  both came with CMEs and are directly geoeffective Earth facing.   The M4.5 launched a slow moving CME that should intercept Earth early tomorrow- Sept 12.   The X1.6 launched a fast moving CME that should intercept Earth..... early tomorrow. The X1.6 event lasted for a full hour from beginning to end.

The two sun spots we are eagerly watching are 2158 and 2157- both showing beta gamma delta configurations and both growing in size.  2158 is above the solar equator and 2157 just below it.

We are currently experiencing a radiation storm  with elevated levels of high and low energy protons streaming past Earth, and are expecting a geomagnetic storm tomorrow morning as the first of the CME waves arrive.

... none of this info was what inspired me to post this article though.  It was watching the video posted below.  This photo is a screen shot that I captured from the video.






http://www.solarham.net/

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2014/09/10/major-solar-flare-measuring-x1-6-erupts-sends-earth-directed-cme/


http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_284/512/


http://www.solarham.net/latest_imagery/211b.htm





Saturday, 11 January 2014

Solar Update: ...... Something stinks.

Well after the events of past 4 days it is, in my opinion, absolutely conclusive that NASA, NOAA and there sister agencies are lying through their teeth, or completely incompetent.

On Wed I published a Solar Update HERE, mostly focused on the X class flare from spot 1944 and the predicted upcoming geomagnetic storm caused by the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) generated by the X Flare.

"NOAA is giving a risk 80% of M Class and 50% of X Class flares for today.... I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I give it 100% chance of an MClass flare today from 1944/6, and I expect we'll see 1946 evolve into Beta Gamma Delta in the next 24-48 hours as well.  We also have a good size Coronal Hole currently rotating into direct Earth View- the Solar Wind stream from that should reach earth Jan 12/13th."

On January 8th NOAA put out the following warnings:

NOAA is predicting a geomagnetic storm later today as the CME from the X1 flare hits the Earths magnetosphere. The speed of the solar wind will spike at around 1.6 million miles per hour (700km/s).
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following information for the 9th, 10th and 11th January:
January 9th
50-90% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk
January 10th
50-85% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
January 11th
1-50% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
- See more at: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-announce-incoming-cme-will-cause-a-geomagnetic-storm_012014#sthash.HSIEp9Zl.dpuf
 NOAA is predicting a geomagnetic storm later today as the CME from the X1 flare hits the Earths magnetosphere. The speed of the solar wind will spike at around 1.6 million miles per hour (700km/s).

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following information for the 9th, 10th and 11th January:

    January 9th- 50-90% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk

    January 10th- 50-85% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.

    January 11th- 1-50% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.

I will put the NOAA warnings in reverse order so that they are easier to see the changes:
NOAA is predicting a geomagnetic storm later today as the CME from the X1 flare hits the Earths magnetosphere. The speed of the solar wind will spike at around 1.6 million miles per hour (700km/s).
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following information for the 9th, 10th and 11th January:
January 9th
50-90% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk
January 10th
50-85% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
January 11th
1-50% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
- See more at: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-announce-incoming-cme-will-cause-a-geomagnetic-storm_012014#sthash.HSIEp9Zl.dpuf

2014-01-08 12:30   G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming Expected
SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9 and 10.  The source of this disturbance is a fairly fast Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) on January 7.  Full evaluation and modeling of this event has refined the forecast and indicates a fairly direct interaction with Earth, with the WSA-Enlil model putting arrival mid-morning UTC on January 9 (very early morning EST).  In addition, the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm associated with this event is currently near, but below, the S3 (Strong) threshold, with values leveling off at this time.  At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic.  Updates here as this event progresses.
2014-01-09 00:03   S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm In Progress
The ongoing S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm has intensified to an S3 (Strong) event as of 2320 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST) today, January 8. Protons should stay at this same approximate level for the next few hours, then likely take another jump with the passage of the shock ahead of the CME, expected to occur around 0900 UTC (4:00 a.m. EST) tomorrow, January 9. However, this increase is not expected to exceed the S3 level. The CME is forecast to set off G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through January 9 and 10. Aurora watchers should be ready; updates here as things unfold.

2014-01-09 20:02   CME Has Arrived
The coronal mass ejection (CME), originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, was observed at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 1932 UTC (2:32 p.m. EST).  It’s too early to see much with respect to the magnetic structure of this CME, but short-term, high-confidence warnings will be issued as this event plays out.  The original forecast continues to be for G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity on January 9 and 10.  Aurora watchers may be in luck for tonight.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, currently at S2 (Moderate) levels, is seeing a modest enhancement with this shock passage but remains below S3 (Strong) threshold at this time.  Updates here as this event unfolds.

2014-01-10 01:15   Modest Start to Geomagnetic Storm
The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event from January 7th is now affecting Earth but the resulting geomagnetic storm is off to a modest start, with no substantial storming occurring thus far.  The initial structure of this CME has been relatively weak in strength, but that said, it generally takes on the order of 24 hours or more for the full event to transpire and stronger storming is certainly still possible.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, still just above the S2 (Moderate) threshold, continues it slow decay toward background levels.  Additionally, Region 1944 is showing some signs of decay and no significant flaring has been observed in the last 48 hours.  Stay tuned for updates.

2014-01-11 00:48   Solar Radiation Storm Winding Down
The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is nearing the S1 (Minor) event threshold.  This event will continue its slow return background levels over the next 24 hours, barring further activity.  Meanwhile, Region 1944 has gone quiet, with no significant flaring observed since January 7th.  This region continues to exhibit signs of weakening, but some threat of significant activity still remains.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/WhatsNew.html

Wellllll..... hmmmmmmmmm.  See here's the thing.  "They" say that the geomagnetic storm was insignificant.... and yet in the middle of the afternoon of the 9th, Malta experienced a power black out....

.... of the entire COUNTRY!

"One of the Delimara power station's switchboard tripped during maintenance causing a widespread power cut across the Maltese Islands, MaltaToday has learnt.
The maintenance works were being carried out by Enemalta."
http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/en/newsdetails/news/national/Widespread-power-cuts-reported-across-the-Maltese-Islands-20140109

yea..... the electricity company just happened to trip a "fuse" (yes, that is the word that was used on the evening news!) .... and blacked out the entire country!!

In Morocco, the gang over there have had almost no internet since the 9th and I've had reports from many people in the US and Europe saying that their internet suddenly sucks too.

Solar storm strikes Earth following monster flare (VIDEO)

Published time: January 10, 2014 18:14
Edited time: January 11, 2014 09:36

A large coronal mass ejection has reached Earth – days after the Sun sent a massive burst of solar wind and electromagnetic radiation towards our planet. While causing no major geomagnetic storm, it has produced spectacular auroras in northern Europe.
The coronal mass ejection (CME) arrived near Earth at 2:32pm EST (7:32pm GMT) on Thursday, with its effects expected to continue throughout Friday, according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a warning of a geomagnetic storm with “minor disruptions to communications and GPS.”

While the world’s economies braced for possible blackouts in high-frequency airline and military communications, disruptions to GPS signals and power grids, enthusiasts in the northern hemisphere rushed outdoors in the hope of viewing the stunning aurora borealis as far south as Colorado.

However, American aurora spotters have been disappointed, as, according to spaceweather.com, the CME’s impact was “weaker than expected” and failed to produce widespread storms. Some frustrated Twitter users also blamed cloudy skies for not being able to see the northern lights. ....

http://rt.com/news/solar-storm-flare-earth-420/

So there was glorious Auroras seen in northern Europe.... but the "clouds" blocked it all out in North America......  Really?

Here is a conversation in skype that I just had with AK:

[6:57:00 PM] AK:: Internet sure sucks in Cabo a contact at ATT in ATL says there networks in the USA are all screwy because of the X Flare
[6:33:34 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: really eh?
[6:33:44 PM] AK: Seems to affecting DSL links hard as they are largely unshielded from EMF
[6:34:30 PM] AK: Just normal copper telephone wires and not even twisted pair copper
[6:38:33 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: and yet according to NASA there is no geomagnetic storms, and the radiation storm is very "minor"..... and 1944 went suddenly dead quiet after the x class flare when it SHOULD of been blowing off.... 1943 is also quiet.  3 days of silence.  On january 8th NASA released a serious warning of severe geomagnetic storm on 9/10..... then all reports were... meh, nothing really happening.... we have a black out of all malta on the 9th, and you guys haven't had any internet since the 9th........
[6:38:58 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: we also have a major coronal hole directly earth facing..... yet.... no mention of coronal winds

[6:52:03 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: just did a bit more research.l  they called for severe/serious geomagnetic storms starting at 800 UTC on the 9th and to continue till 10th. the CME didn't hit until after 1900 utc and NOTHING- it was barely a minor storm.
[6:57:45 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: this stinks darlins!!!  it seriously stinks!!!


As I said in an earlier post a little while back about solar activity- for two years I have watched the same thing happen over and over again:  a major sun spot, throwing off huge flares, rotates into geoeffective Earth view and suddenly.... it just fizzles out.  Goes silent.  Then as it rotates around the western limb, then POW  it flares up again.  

Same thing again this week.  Spot 1944 should of continued with strong M and even X Class flares.  It was so close to 1943 that they were almost touching.....  The fact that NOAA gave a risk of  90% for M Class and 50% for X Class flares, shows that that IS what should of happened.  And it didn't.  Instead, everything just went silent.  Not even a mention of the massive Coronal Hole stream that was directly facing earth since Wednesday either. Below is a picture of the Coronal Hole on Tuesday.

So.... I'm at a loss here.  Either NASA/NOAA etc are all lying, or something completely unheard of (or at least, completely unexplained) is happening between Earth and the Sun.






This January 7, 2014 handout image captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a false-color composite image from a blast of activity originating from an active sunspot region at the center of the sun's disk (AFP Photo)

The Sun Today:

AIA 171
AIA 304
AIA 193
AIA 335
AIA 211
Composite
Intensity
Magnetogram
Latest CME Model (Goddard)
Intensity Colored (Open Map)
AIA 094 (Magnetic Class)
Intensity Enhanced (2.5mb)
Daily Coronal Hole Map
Daily Farside Map