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Showing posts with label sun spot 2192. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sun spot 2192. Show all posts

Monday, 27 October 2014

All Flash, No Bang.

edited 7:14pm UTC to add:
well, apparently 20 minutes after I pressed publish, Sol threw another bangless party:

X-Flare # 6 Detected
A strong X2.0 solar flare, now the sixth X-Class event around region 2192, was detected at 14:47 UTC. The event triggered a strong R3 radio black on the sunlit side of Earth. So far the event does not appear to be eruptive, meaning a noteworthy CME is not expected. More details to follow. Click HERE f

or an updated event log.
http://www.solarham.net/

.... and again, no CME.  Hmmmmmm.


*********************************************


Good morning everyone!

Sorry for the delay in reporting- we have just moved to a new home (with all the adventures that that entails, lol) and I got slammed with cystitis for a few days that left me little time to think about anything other than how long I could go till I had to pee again, lol.  But today has been a turning point on all things physical (and emotional), and the house is almost (ok, sorta) unpacked and I can now return to my computer.


... And I have internet :D


First up today, if you haven't been watching the solar intel, Sol has been having a serious party...... yet it's kinda been like a party with great music, an awesome light show.... but no dancing or laughter.  Sun spot 2192 has been flaring almost continuously for the past 6 days, launching 5 X Class flares in the past 48 hours, plus several M Class flares as well...... and yet, not a single CME from ANY of the flares from 2192.   It's been all flash but no bang.  Very very weird.


I have been following the solar reports hourly almost for the past 5 days.  "They" say that there have been no geomagnetic storms, no radiation storms, no real pick up in the solar wind speeds or velocities (even though we had a good sized coronal hole in geoeffective positioning for most of the past week?).  We've experienced a few very short lived radio black outs during the big flares, yet even those have been insignificant. I smell something off.....

Any way, 2192 is getting close to rotating around the western limb in the next couple of days.  What will be interesting will be to watch the far side as it rotates through away from Earth's direct view.  I strongly suspect that the moment it rotates around far side, it will splash off a spectacular CME.  We'll just have to wait and see, right?

Oh- and want a giggle?  The boys upstairs finally raised the "Solar flare risks" to 55% chance of another X Class flare..... AFTER we had 5 X Class flares in a row, roflmfao!!!



Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 85%
X-Class: 55%

I"ll post some pretty pictures and videos of the sun in action below.

In other news around Gaia, apparently later on today, purportedly a house size asteroid is going to pass between Earth and the Moon, 160,000km from us.  Normally I wouldn't of batted an eye at a report of this type except that lately we've had a few of these type of "near misses" and they've raised some questions for me.

House-sized Asteroid to Give Earth a Very Close Shave Monday

Get ready for a very close encounter as a house-sized asteroid 2014 UF56 will pass between the Earth and the Moon on Monday. The 15 meter wide space rock will miss our planet at a distance of about 160,000 km (0.4 lunar distances) at 9:12 p.m. UTC. The asteroid was discovered Saturday and despite passing so close to Earth, few if any of us will see the flyby with our eyes in a telescope. At brightest, 2014 UF56 will only reach magnitude +16, as it zips from Scutum constellation through Capricornus.

The asteroid, back in 2012 visited Mars at a distance of about 8 mln km. It will again approach the Earth on Feb. 12, 2018. This will be a very distant fly-by, at about 64 lunar distances.
http://www.science20.com/astro_watch/blog/housesized_asteroid_to_give_earth_a_very_close_shave_monday-147729

Wait a second!!  "They" just discovered this asteroid two days ago, on Saturday, yet they know that the same asteroid visited Mars in 2012, and it will be passing Earth again on Feb 18th, 2018?!?

......Seriously?

Does this sound completely concocted to anyone else?













Solar flares today

Today, 8 solar flares were observed:

Active region Begin, UT Max, UT End, UT
Flare of class M7.1 2192 00:06:00 00:34:00 00:44:00

Flare of class M1.0 2192 01:44:00 02:02:00 02:11:00

Flare of class M1.3 2192 03:35:00 03:41:00 03:48:00

Flare of class C3.4 2192 05:01:00 05:04:00 05:11:00

Flare of class C4.9 2192 05:21:00 05:38:00 05:47:00

Flare of class C9.6 2192 06:56:00 07:01:00 07:07:00

Flare of class C9.6 2192 07:11:00 07:15:00 07:20:00

Flare of class M6.7 0 09:59:00 10:09:00 10:26:00


Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 15 solar flares were observed:

Active region Begin, UT Max, UT End, UT
Flare of class C3.1 2192 01:08:00 01:13:00 01:27:00

Flare of class C2.8 2192 05:09:00 05:13:00 05:19:00

Flare of class C4.0 2192 05:45:00 05:50:00 05:55:00

Flare of class C9.5 2192 06:13:00 06:21:00 06:26:00

Flare of class X2.0 2192 10:04:00 10:56:00 11:18:00

Flare of class C9.2 2192 13:04:00 13:09:00 13:16:00

Flare of class C5.2 2192 15:11:00 15:20:00 15:34:00

Flare of class C3.5 0 15:52:00 15:56:00 16:00:00

Flare of class C5.3 2193 16:12:00 16:17:00 16:22:00

Flare of class M1.0 2192 17:08:00 17:17:00 17:30:00

Flare of class C7.8 2192 17:55:00 17:59:00 18:05:00

Flare of class M4.2 2192 18:07:00 18:15:00 18:20:00

Flare of class M1.9 2192 18:43:00 18:49:00 18:56:00

Flare of class M2.4 2192 19:59:00 20:21:00 20:45:00

Flare of class C8.3 2192 21:47:00 21:59:00 22:13:00

For more information:
http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/sun_flares.html

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2014/10/26/fifth-x-class-solar-flare-erupts-from-region-2192-x2-0-on-october-26-2014/

http://www.solarham.net/


Very quietly, from the bottom of the page- as you know I am not comfortable with this sorta thing.....  I am in need of some extra funds at the moment.  The moved cost us more than we anticipated, and I also have to put my old trusty laptop into the shop this week in a desperate attempt to access my hard drive- which has hundreds of documents stored on it that I cannot replace- intel reports, etc that I do not have stored anywhere else.  I am currently working on a project that should help to make our family self sufficient monetarily while we still live in this disastrous mess of a failing floundering, fucked up financial system, but at the moment my funds are radically limited till I can get the project up and running.  So I am asking:  If you enjoy the articles I write, and you resonate with what I am saying, and if you have a few cents to send..... I will hugely appreciate it.  I have said it before: if every daily reader of RTS was to "donate" $.50 a month, my family and I would have no problem with anything to do with "finances" any more.

With love and thanx
D

Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Sol Grooves to it's own Beat

Well my friends, our beautiful star Sol is once again dancing and grooving to the beat of it's own drum.  Over the course of the past two months, the sun has sorta picked up the pace from what has been a very very quiet solar maxim.  This past two weeks has been an exciting one for sure, with multiple solar events, a rather large CME from a filament ripping off the surface, another large full halo CME last week just as sun spot 2192 began it's rotation from the farside to earth facing positioning.

In the past 3 days we have seen one X Class flare on the 19th, followed by 8 M Class flares over the past 48 hours.  The most powerful one happened last night just before 2am UTC.  All the major and minor flares (multiple C Class flares over the past 3 days as well) have  been brought to us through sun spot 2192, which has developed into a massive spot and is still gathering size, with a complex Beta Gamma Delta configuration.

One of the things that I'm finding intriguing this morning is that the M8.7 flare last night was originally listed as M9 (see the Space weather note below).... and it had all the markings of blasting off a CME- which would be directly Earth facing, yet so far there has been no updates to show a CME.  Interestingly enough, over the past month of flares, there has only been one CME listed in the updates from an M7 flare Oct 2nd, and one CME last week from the far side flare of 2192 on the 14th.

As 2192 is now directly in geomagnetic alignment with Earth, I will be watching with keen interest to see if, like so many other monster sun spots have done over the past two years, it will suddenly go quiet now that it's directly Earth facing.   I will also note that we have a good size Coronal Hole directly Earth facing on the leading edge of spot 2192, and a new sunspot is about to rotate into view from the eastern limb- old spots 2181 & 2182 are making another appearance (and will be given a new numerical designation once they are Earth facing)- 2182 let off 3 M Class flares on Oct 9th on it's last jaunt around, and from the look of the few farside pics, 2181 seems to of grown in size..... could be interesting!







Coronal holes on October 22nd 2014

In other solar based news, we will see- or at least, everyone in North America will see- a partial solar eclipse today, starting around 2pm PDT. 

More solar information:

http://www.solarham.net/

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2014/10/22/strong-m8-7-solar-flare-erupted-from-region-2192/

http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/active_areas.html?m=10&d=22&y=2014

Oct 19th


Flare of class X1.1 2192 04:17:00 05:03:00 05:48:00

Oct 20th

Flare of class C2.5 2192 00:49:00 00:53:00 00:56:00

Flare of class C2.8 2192 01:58:00 02:01:00 02:04:00

Flare of class C3.2 2192 02:25:00 02:28:00 02:32:00

Flare of class C5.4 2192 03:32:00 03:57:00 04:05:00

Flare of class C9.0 2192 05:37:00 06:02:00 06:09:00

Flare of class M3.9 2192 09:00:00 09:11:00 09:20:00

Flare of class C2.8 2192 11:19:00 11:27:00 11:30:00

Flare of class C2.7 2192 13:58:00 14:08:00 14:11:00

Flare of class C3.1 2192 14:40:00 14:43:00 14:47:00

Flare of class C8.6 2192 14:58:00 15:24:00 15:41:00

Flare of class M4.5 2192 16:00:00 16:37:00 16:55:00

Flare of class C6.2 2192 18:43:00 18:47:00 18:51:00

Flare of class M1.4 2192 18:55:00 19:02:00 19:04:00

Flare of class M1.7 2192 19:53:00 20:04:00 20:13:00

Flare of class M1.2 2192 22:43:00 22:55:00 23:13:00


Oct 21st

Flare of class C4.2 0 02:12:00 02:20:00 02:30:00

Flare of class C5.7 2192 06:05:00 06:14:00 06:21:00

Flare of class C2.9 2192 06:53:00 06:57:00 07:02:00

Flare of class C3.1 2192 08:08:00 08:10:00 08:12:00

Flare of class C6.3 0 10:46:00 10:58:00 11:13:00

Flare of class C4.4 0 12:25:00 12:28:00 12:30:00

Flare of class M1.2 0 13:35:00 13:38:00 13:40:00

Flare of class C4.0 2192 19:03:00 19:10:00 19:16:00

Flare of class C6.5 2192 20:11:00 20:20:00 20:25:00

Flare of class C3.4 2192 21:54:00 22:04:00 22:14:00


Oct 22nd

Flare of class M8.7 2192 01:16:00 01:59:00 02:28:00

Flare of class M2.7 2192 05:11:00 05:17:00 05:21:00








http://spaceweather.com/

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014
What's up in space
On October 23rd there will be a partial eclipse of the Sun. Got clouds? No problem. The event will be broadcast live on the web by the Coca-Cola Science Center.
Solar Eclipse Live
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE: On Thursday, Oct. 23rd, the Moon will pass in front of the sun, off center, producing a partial solar eclipse visible from almost all of North America. The action begins at approximatey 2 pm PDT. Get the full story from Science@NASA.
LOTS OF SOLAR FLARES: During the past 48 hours, monster sunspot AR2192 has unleashed seven M-class solar flares. The most powerful of the bunch (Oct 22nd at 0159 UT) was an M9-class eruption that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, causing a brief blackout of HF radio communications on the dayside of Earth (e.g., parts of Asia and Australia). In addition, the explosion might have hurled a CME into space. Confirmation awaits the arrival of coronagraph data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Stay tuned for updates.
More flares are in the offing. AR2192 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for powerful explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate at 65% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Oct. 22nd. Solar flare alerts: text, voice