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Friday, 23 November 2012

Solar Geomagnetic update Nov 23

While NOAA seems to think that sun spot 1618 is all partied out, (now saying only a 10% chance of a M class and 1% for X Class flare), several other observatories think not.  The University of Bradford Space Weather Research Team are giving vastly different odds of 62% for M Class and 57% for X Class Flares. 

Add to this the fact that sunspot 1619 is now directly earth facing and might be putting on it's dancing shoes too.

We have one CME impact incoming later today, and they're expecting a mild to moderate geomagnetic storm to match, but we're also expecting at least one, and most likely two more CMEs to directly impact Earth tomorrow raising the probability of geomagnetic storms in the higher range.

As SuspiciousObservers notes in his update today (video below) there was another instability on our lovely Sol yesterday that released yet another CME- directly earth facing, which makes this a triple event.

With everything else that's going on, this could be a very interesting weekend my friends.



Updated 11/23/2012 @ 04:45 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
Thanks to multiple eruptions on the Earth facing side of the Sun, two Coronal Mass Ejections appear to be somewhat Earth directed. The first CME impact is expected during the day on Friday. Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storming will be possible heading into Saturday when the 2nd impact is expected. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

http://www.solarham.net/

Sunspot 1618 facing Earth – Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration

Active Region 1618 keeps evolving and it has now Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration  that harbors energy for M- and X-class eruptions. It produced an M3.5 flare with peak at 15:30 UTC on November 21, related to a halo CME first seen at 16:12 UTC by SOHO’s LASCO C2 coronograph with a speed of 560 km/s (calculated with LASCO/C2 data, not enough STEREO/COR2 data is available for calculating speeds), SIDC reported. Encounter with the Earth can be expected by November 24 with corresponding elevated geomagnetic conditions.   NOAA/SWPC reports that although this region retains weak beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics, it has experienced intermediate penumbral decay. Sunspot...
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Active Region 1618 keeps evolving and it has now Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration  that harbors energy for M- and X-class eruptions. It produced an M3.5 flare with peak at 15:30 UTC on November 21, related to a halo CME first seen at 16:12 UTC by SOHO’s LASCO C2 coronograph with a speed of 560 km/s (calculated with LASCO/C2 data, not enough STEREO/COR2 data is available for calculating speeds), SIDC reported. Encounter with the Earth can be expected by November 24 with corresponding elevated geomagnetic conditions.
http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2012/11/23/sunspot-1618-facing-earth/




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lqk7J53CQGI&feature=g-all-u






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