Friday, 25 October 2013

Solar Update: ...Cha Cha Chaaaa!!!

So this time I was right and wrong!  Last night we had an M Class 2.9 flare and a few hours ago we had and X Class 1.7 flare with a very bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection).  .... which I called yesterday.   The shocker is that BOTH flares came from a very unassuming 1882 (previously numbered 1862) that is just barely peeking around the western limb of our sun!  ... I didn't even see that one coming, lol!

On top of the firey dance of the sun, the first of 4 CME's has impacted earth, with 3 more coming over the next 24 hours (two later today, one tomorrow). So don't throw out your GPS or cel phone or TV remote if they are not exactly working properly today and tomorrow, lol. 

...and in response to there being 9 M Class and 1 X Class flares..... NOAA has raised it's Solar Flare Risk .... by a whopping 5%.   Seriously?  They are now saying 55% of M and 10% of X class flares.   Way to go guys.

On a side note:  This many CMEs that are directly earth facing DO have physical effects on Humans (and animals)- including headaches, dizziness, intense mood swings- and severe road rage is a scientific fact during solar storms and CMEs.   So keep your cool folks! 


Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 55%
X-Class: 10%
Active Watches
Geomag. Storm     YES
Radiation Storm     NO

NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center
Mass Ejection graphic

Space Weather Alerts

Alerts in Graphical Timelines: Past 7 days and Currently in Effect
Alerts in Text Format: Current month and Previous month

Alerts Issued in October 2013

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 88
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 25 0848 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 25 0753 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Oct 25 0801 UTC
End Time: 2013 Oct 25 0809 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.7
Location: S08E67
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Comment: CORRECTION: This flare is attributed to Region 1882, not 1875 as earlier reported. No optical flare reported.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 880
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 25 0847 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 25 0759 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1240 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 591
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 25 0836 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 25 0757 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Oct 25 0758 UTC
End Time: 2013 Oct 25 0821 UTC
Duration: 24 minutes
Peak Flux: 610 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 161 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 432
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 25 0821 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 25 0804 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

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